NEWS LETTER
Thursday, June 5, 2009
AAA Mortgage rates sheet:
http://www.loanaaamortgage.com/ratesheet
National mortgage rates:
http://www.zillow.com/Mortgage_Rates/
10-Years Treasury Note:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX#chart1:symbol=^tnx;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Secure Loan application on line:
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Rate Lock Advisory - Friday Jun. 5th Friday's bond market has opened down sharply again following mixed results in today's Employment report. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 35 points but the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .750 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.The Labor Department released May's employment figures this morning, showing a higher than expected unemployment rate of 9.4% but a decline in payrolls of 345,000 that was smaller than expected. Analysts had forecasted a 9.2% unemployment rate and a drop in jobs of approximately 520,000. The 9.4% rate of unemployment is a 26-year high, but the job loss number was the smallest decline since September.It appears that the job loss number is having the biggest influence on trading this morning. The smaller figure indicates that job cuts may be slowing, which is important for the economy to start to pull out of the recession. It fuels the theory that the economy may begin to recover later this year. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a slowing economy usually makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. This news, coupled with concern about the next debt offering from the Fed has fueled another morning of bond selling. This has not been a pleasant week for mortgage shoppers with rates ending the week much higher than it began. Next week is moderately important in terms of economic reports. There are a couple worth noting but they don't start until the middle of the week. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday, so there is little news to help change the current momentum in bonds. This could lead to further increases in rates until we get to the data. Look for more details on next week's events that may influence trading and rates in Sunday's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. Sincerely
Alex Tabatabai
President
AAA Mortgage
Licensed Mortgage Broker Business
Toll Free: (800) 764-7598
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http://loanaaamortgage.com
Thursday, May 13, 2009
Rate Lock Advisory - Wednesday May. 13th
Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a much weaker than expected Retail Sales report. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 159 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.The Commerce Department reported this morning that sales at retail establishments fell 0.4% last month. This was much lower than the 0.1% decline that was expected and indicates that consumer spending is softening. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, today's report hints that an economy recovery may not be as soon as some analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity makes bonds and mortgage related securities more attractive to investors.Tomorrow morning also brings us an important economic report with the release of April's Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.Also tomorrow will be the release of last week's unemployment figures by the Labor Department. Last Thursday's posting showed a sizable drop in new claims for unemployment benefits. Tomorrow's release is expected to reveal 609,000 new claims were filed, which would be an increase of 8,000. However, this data is not nearly important as the PPI is and will likely not influence bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.Friday brings us the release of three relevant reports, including the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI). The other two are moderately important to the markets, but the group of three combined can create a large amount of volatility in the markets if they reveal surprising results. But the CPI will be the primary report of the day.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Sincerely
Friday, May 12, 2009
Rate Lock Advisory - Tuesday May. 12th
Tuesday's bond market has opened down slightly with no important economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing minor losses with the Dow down 6 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still likely see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report was posted this morning, revealing a trade deficit of $27.6 billion. This figure was below forecasts, but since this data is not considered to be highly important, its impact on this morning's trading has been minimal.The first important piece of data comes tomorrow morning when April's Retail Sales report will be released. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% decline in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.Thursday brings us another important report with the release of April's Producer Price Index (PPI). This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If it reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer level, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Friday, May 08, 2009
Rate Lock Advisory - Friday May. 8th
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected reading in today's Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorable also with the Dow up 76 points and the Nasdaq up 6 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning's rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.The Labor Department reported this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 25-year high of 8.9% last month. They also reported that 539,000 jobs were lost during the month, falling short of the 600,000 jobs that latest forecasts had predicted. This was the fewest number of lost jobs since October, giving hope that the shedding may be slowing. The average hourly earnings reading rose 0.1%, when analysts were expecting a 0.2% increase. Overall, the report gave us mixed results on the status of the labor market, but bonds and stocks have reacted favorably to its results.Next week is very busy with many relevant economic reports on the calendar. There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but the rest of the week brings us a couple of key inflation readings, an important measurement of consumer spending and a reading on industrial output. I am expecting to see a fairly calm day Monday unless we get some relevant news over the weekend. But the middle and latter parts of the week will probably be extremely active with several key reports being posted over three trading days. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview, but expect to see some volatility late next week.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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